BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

930 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003

…ISABEL CONTINUES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS…WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY…

…WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED THE 1933 HURRICANE BENCHMARKS DURING THIS

AFTERNOON’S HIGH TIDE…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA…INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. THIS INCLUDES THE ENTIRE VIRGINIA COAST…THE NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST…AND CURRITUCK AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT…AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC…AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA NORTH TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND INLAND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN RICHMOND.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE…NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…AND EASTERN VIRGINIA

…WATCHES AND WARNINGS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…

CAMDEN…PASQUOTANK…PERQUIMANS…CHOWAN…BERTIE…CURRITUCK.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES IN VIRGINIA…

ESSEX…NORTHUMBERLAND…MIDDLESEX…GLOUCESTER…SURRY…ISLE OF WIGHT…SUFFOLK…CHESAPEAKE…WESTMORELAND…ACCOMACK…RICHMOND COUNTY…LANCASTER…NORTHAMPTON…MATHEWS…VIRGINIA BEACH…JAMES CITY…WILLIAMSBURG…NEWPORT NEWS…HAMPTON…YORK…POQUOSON…NORFOLK AND PORTSMOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MARYLAND…

WICOMICO…DORCHESTER…SOMERSET…AND WORCESTER INCLUDING OCEAN CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…

NORTHAMPTON…HERTFORD…BERTIE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES IN VIRGINIA…

CHARLES CITY…GREENSVILLE…PRINCE GEORGE…SOUTHAMPTON…SUSSEX…PETERSBURG…HOPEWELL…EMPORIA…AND FRANKLIN.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES IN VIRGINIA:

AMELIA…BRUNSWICK…CAROLINE…CHESTERFIELD…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…CUMBERLAND…DINWIDDIE…FLUVANNA…GOOCHLAND…HANOVER…HENRICO…KING AND QUEEN…KING WILLIAM…LOUISA…LUNENBURG…MECKLENBURG…NEW KENT…NOTTOWAY…POWHATAN…PRINCE EDWARD…AND DOWNTOWN RICHMOND.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH…ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MARYLAND…

WICOMICO…DORCHESTER…SOMERSET…AND WORCESTER INCLUDING OCEAN CITY.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…

CAMDEN…PASQUOTANK…PERQUIMANS…CHOWAN…BERTIE…CURRITUCK…NORTHAMPTON…HERTFORD…BERTIE

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES IN VIRGINIA…

ESSEX…NORTHUMBERLAND…WESTMORELAND…MIDDLESEX…GLOUCESTER…KING AND QUEEN…KING WILLIAM…NEW KENT…CHARLES CITY…PRINCE GEORGE…HOPEWELL…PETERSBURG…SUSSEX…SURRY…SOUTHAMPTON…FRANKLIN…ISLE OF WIGHT…SUFFOLK…CHESAPEAKE…ACCOMACK…RICHMOND COUNTY…LANCASTER…NORTHAMPTON…MATHEWS…VIRGINIA BEACH…JAMES CITY…WILLIAMSBURG…NEWPORT NEWS…HAMPTON…YORK…POQUOSON…NORFOLK…AND PORTSMOUTH.

…STORM INFORMATION…

AT 9 AM EDT…1300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA…OR ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER…CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE-FORCE COULD ALSO EXTEND INLAND UP TO 150 MILES ALONG THE PATH OF ISABEL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISABEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB…OR 28.26 INCHES.

…PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A MANDATORY EVACUATION WAS ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN NORTH CAROLINA…ALL OF CURRITUCK COUNTY INCLUDING KNOTTS ISLAND…CAMDEN COUNTY…AND PASQUOTANK COUNTY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION WAS ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN VIRGINIA…PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF HAMPTON…PORTIONS OF THE

CITY OF NORFOLK…PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF PORTSMOUTH…AND PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH…PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX…NORTHAMPTON AND SURRY COUNTIES.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF MOST OF THE REMAINING CITIES AND COUNTIES IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA…INCLUDING SUFFOLK…CHINCOTEAGUE…CHESAPEAKE…ISLE OF WIGHT…MATHEWS…NEWPORT NEWS…AND RICHMOND COUNTY.

AREA RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED SHOULD OTHER JURISDICTIONS ISSUE EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS. MORE INFORMATION ON EVACUATIONS AND SHELTERS IS AVAILABLE FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS.

…WIND AND WAVE INFORMATION…

SWELLS FROM ISABEL ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH 13 TO 18 FOOT WAVES. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES…AS WELL AS DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND…AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. AT 9 AM…ELIZABETH CITY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 67 MPH…AND NORFOLK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH MIDDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MIDDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

…RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL…

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS. THE CHOWAN BASIN MAY BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE…BUT FLOODING IN THE JAMES…APPOMATTOX AND MEHERRIN BASINS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONTINUOUS DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING ALONG

AND EAST OF A OCEAN CITY…TO PETERSBURG…TO ROANOKE RAPID LINE. THIS AREA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE…AND CENTRAL…EAST CENTRAL…AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA BY MIDDAY.

…TORNADO INFORMATION…

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA…AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND TODAY.

…STORM SURGE INFORMATION…

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM SURGES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE COAST FROM CURRITUCK BEACH TO CHINCOTEAGUE…3 TO 5 FEET FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO FENWICK ISLAND…4 TO 8 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY…AND 2 TO 5 FEET FOR THE CURRITUCK AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL HAVE STORM SURGE VALUES FROM 4 TO 7 FEET…NEAR THE CHOWAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS. THESE SURGES

WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS…ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

POTENTIAL STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS…INCLUDING THE CHOWAN…THE JAMES…THE YORK…AND THE RAPPAHANNOCK.

IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA…THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR OR UP TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SURGE VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH THE THE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE THE WATER LEVEL TO DANGEROUS LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

…HIGH TIDES AND EXPECTED WATER LEVELS ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER…

ISABEL MAY PRODUCE RECORD TIDE LEVELS AT SOME LOCATIONS…ESPECIALLYIN THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING THIS AFTERNOON’S HIGH TIDE MAY EXCEED THE 1933 HURRICANE BENCHMARKS.

TIMES OF HIGH TIDES FOR KEY POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND BAY TODAY AND TONIGHT…

SEWELLS POINT…HIGH TIDE 310 PM WITH A WATER LEVEL 9.5 TO 10.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW…AND AT 336 AM FRIDAY WITH A WATER LEVEL 4.0 TO 5.0 ABOVE MLLW. HIGH TIDE OF RECORD IS 9.8 FEET RECORDED DURING THE 1933 HURRICANE.

DUCK NC…HIGH TIDE 127 PM WITH A WATER LEVEL 9.0 TO 10.0 ABOVE MLLW…AND AT 152 AM FRIDAY WITH A WATER LEVEL 3.5 TO 4.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW.

GLOUCESTER POINT…HIGH TIDE 321 PM WITH A WATER LEVEL 7.5 TO 8.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW…AND AT 347 AM FRIDAY WITH A WATER LEVEL 4.5 TO 5.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW.

WEST POINT…HIGH TIDE AT 517 PM WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 9.5 TO 10.5 ABOVE MLLW…AND AT 543 AM FRIDAY WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 9.0 TO 10.0 FEET.

WACHAPREAGUE…HIGH TIDE 209 PM WITH A WATER LEVEL 8.0 TO 9.0 FEET ABOVE MLLW…AND AT 230 AM FRIDAY WITH 5.5 TO 6.5 ABOVE MLLW.

OCEAN CITY…HIGH TIDE 140 PM WITH A WATER LEVEL 6.5 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW…AND AT 200 AM FRIDAY WITH A WATER LEVEL 6.0 TO 7.0 FEET ABOVE MLLW.

…WIND IMPACTS…

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS ABOVE 73 MPH…MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…IN THE HURRICANE AND INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING AREAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS ABOVE 39 MPH WILL BE

LIKELY…MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…IN THE TROPICAL STORM AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN NUMEROUS TREES…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WETNESS OF THE SOILS…AND COULD CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ANDTHE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE ISABEL. INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.