AT 11 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH… LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

HOWEVER…CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTLINE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 1005 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

Isabel is heading for the North Carolina and Mid Atlantic coast…

A hurricane warning is in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina

northward to Chincoteague Virginia…including the Chesapeake Bay

south of Smith Point. This includes the entire Virginia coast…the

Northeast North Carolina coast…and Currituck and Albemarle sounds.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Chesapeake Bay north of

Smith Point…and the tidal Potomac…as well as the atlantic coast

from chincoteague Virginia north to Sandy Hook New Jersey.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from cape fear North Carolina

southward to south Santee River South Carolina.

An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for inland portions of south central and southeast Virginia and inland northeast North Carolina…

An inland tropical storm wind warning is in effect for portions of central Virginia including metropolitan Richmond.

…watches and warnings… a hurricane warning is in effect for the following counties in Northeast North Carolina:

In northeast North Carolina…

Camden…Pasquotank…Perguimans…Chowan…Bertie…Currituck.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the following counties and

independent cities in Virginia:

In Virginia…

Essex…Northumberland…Middlesex…Gloucester…Surry…Isle of

Wight…Suffolk…Chesapeake…westmoreland…accomack…Richmond

County…lancaster…NortHampton…Mathews…Virginia Beach…James

City…Williamsburg…Newport News/Hampton…York…Poquoson and

Norfolk/Portsmouth.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area…generally within 24 hours.

An inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for the following counties in northeast North Carolina:

Northampton…Hertford…Bertie.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center…and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles.

The most recent minimum central pressure…at 8 pm EDT…reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 955 mb…or 28.20 inches.

…precautionary/preparedness actions…

A mandatory evacuation was ordered for the following locations in

North Carolina…all of currituck County including Knotts Island…Camden County…and Pasquotank County. A mandatory

evacuation was ordered for the following locations in Virginia…portions of the city of Hampton…portions of the City of Norfolk…portions of the city of Portsmouth…and portions

of the city of Virginia Beach…portions of Middlesex…NortHampton and Surry counties.

A voluntary evacuation is in effect for residents in low-lying areas of most of the remaining cities and counties in the hurricane

warning area…including Suffolk…Chincoteague…Chesapeake…Isle Of Wight…Mathews…Newport News…and Richmond County.

Area residents are urged to stay tuned should other jurisdictions issue evacuation instructions. More information on evacuations and shelters is available from County officials.

…wind and wave information…

Swells from Isabel are already affecting the coastal sections with 10 to 13 foot waves. The waves are expected to increase to 14 to 18 feet overnight…then to 20 to 30 feet Thursday. High surf and beach erosion can be expected at the beaches…as well as dangerous rip currents.

…rainfall and flood potential…

Very heavy rainfall will accompany the storm as it moves through the area. The potential exists for 6 to 10 inches of rain as it crosses the region Thursday and Thursday night. This could cause flooding of some streams and creeks. The chowan basin may be especially vulnerable…but flooding in the James…appomattox and meherrin basins is also possible.

…tornado information…

There is a slight risk of tornadoes across northeastern North Carolina…central and southeast Virginia…and southern Maryland on Thursday.

…storm surge information…

The potential exists for storm surges of 5 to 10 feet along the coast from currituck beach to chincoteague…4 to 8 feet over the southern bay…and 3 to 5 feet for the currituck and albemarle sound. Portions of the western albemarle sound will have storm surge values from 4 to 7 feet…near the chowan and roanoke rivers. These surges will cause coastal flooding of low lying flood prone areas…especially around times of high tide.

Potential storm surge of 4 to 6 feet is also possible along rivers…including the chowan…the James…the York…and the rappahannock.

In northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia…the maximum storm surge values are expected to occur near the time of high tide on Thursday afternoon. The storm surge values will combine with the the tidal departures to increase the water level to dangerous levels in the southern Chesapeake bay and portions of the atlantic coast. This may continue over another tide cycle into friday morning.

Sewells point is expected to see water levels of 8 to 10 feet above mean lower low water around high tide at 310 pm Thursday.

Gloucester point is expected to see water levels of 8 to 10 feet above mean lower low water around high tide at 321 pm Thursday.

Ocean city is expected to see water levels of 6 to 7 feet above mean lower low water around high tide at 140 pm Thursday. Minor flooding starts at 6 feet…with moderate flooding at 7 feet. Wachapreague is expected to see water levels of 9 to 10 feet above mean lower low water around high tide at 209 pm Thursday. Major flooding begins around 8 feet.

Currituck beach light is expected to see water levels around 8 to 10 feet above mean lower low water.

The wetness of the soils…and could cause structural damage.

Residents in the affected area should monitor noaa weather radio and the media for updates on hurricane Isabel. Information is also available on our web site at weather.noaa.gov/akq.

The next scheduled hurricane local statement will be issued around 12 am EDT Thursday unless conditions warrant earlier releases.