A win by the Washington Commanders over the Atlanta Falcons is our computer model projection for these teams’ upcoming matchup, on Sunday, Dec. 29 at 8:20 p.m. ET (at Commanders Field). For a full breakdown, including the spread, over/under and final score, see below.

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Offensively, the Commanders have been a top-five unit, ranking fourth-best in the NFL by compiling 28.8 points per game. They rank 19th on defense (23.2 points allowed per game). With 360.9 total yards per game on offense, the Falcons rank 10th in the NFL in 2024. Defensively, they rank 16th, surrendering 335.3 total yards per contest.

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Commanders vs. Falcons Predictions and Picks

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Commanders Betting Info

• Based on this matchup’s moneyline, the Commanders have an implied win probability of 65.5%.
• Washington has compiled a 9-6-0 ATS record so far this year.
• When playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this season, the Commanders have an ATS record of 3-2.
• A total of 10 out of 15 Washington games this season have gone over the point total.
• The over/under in this game is 46.5 points, 0.4 higher than the average total in Commanders games this season.

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Falcons Betting Info

• The Falcons have a 39.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Atlanta has put together a 6-8-1 record against the spread this season.
• The Falcons have been an underdog by 3.5 points or more two times this year, and covered the spread in one of those games.
• So far this season, five of Atlanta’s 15 games with a set number have gone over the point total.
• Falcons games average 46 total points (playoffs included), 0.5 fewer than the total for this matchup.

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Commanders vs. Falcons 2024 Scoring Insights

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